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Brazil - Serie A | Regular Season - 12
Sat 18 Apr at 21:30
Vasco da Gama
Elo: 1594
vs
São Paulo
Elo: 1689
Prediction: Away Win (1-1)
Match Result Prediction
59%Moderate
32%29%39%
HomeDrawAway
Most likely scoreline: 1-1
Goals Markets
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%
BTTS Yes
58%
Model Breakdown
eloH: 32% | D: 30% | A: 38%
poissonH: 34% | D: 28% | A: 37%
Context Adjustments
motivation: -2%
Our Analysis vs Market
(6 bookmakers)Home Win
Us32%
Market33%
Draw
Us29%
Market30%
Away Win+1%
Us39%
Market37%
Over 2.5-2%
Us53%
Market55%
Bookmaker Odds
Match Result (1X2)
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.99 | 3.15 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 3.22 | 3.09 | 2.53 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.54 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.11 | 2.82 |
| Unibet | 2.93 | 3.39 | 2.53 |
| 1xBet | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
| Bookmaker | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 2.11 |
| Betfair | 1.74 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 2.28 |
| Unibet | 1.74 | 2.13 |
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 2.30 |
Form Comparison
Vasco da Gama
Stat
São Paulo
Last 5
1.8
Avg Scored
2.0
1.1
Avg Conceded
0.9
-
Avg Possession
-
4
Clean Sheets
5
8
League Pos
4